It is said that the Dragon has a distinct trait; it mostly lives alone, self centered and definitely not a social animal. On the other hand the elephant is also known as the gentle giant who lives in a heard, is completely social and most important looks out for each other.
So should we be worried
to have a Dragon as our next door neighbor? Let’s understand the background.
Both China and India
have been ancient civilizations dating back to 1000s of years and both of us
have had a glorious past, But if we were to look closer in the current context
we are both billion plus nations with vast majority in coming under the category
of "Poor". While China has made tremendous stride in its HDI with
massive urbanization and turning its agri based economy to manufacturing hub of
the world India still has lot of catching up to do.
Chinas GDP today stands
second in the world at $11 trillion and is projected to overtake USA in couple
of years with whom she has a trade deficit advantage of over $350 billion and
over $200 billion with EU.
So why the fuss about
India with a $2 trillion economy paltry as compared to China?
The answer lies in China
of today's desire to regain its century old position of world leader and is
willing to go to any extent to gain that. China in 70's realized the potential
of globalization and quickly turned itself from a cheap producer for the world,
but during the past decades the rising wages coupled with slowing world economy
has turned the heat back on its economy.
Dragon has a great
feature that it can quickly change course and maneuver itself and the result is
the OBOR project. Conceptualized on the route of the ancient "Silk
Route" it aims to channelize the surplus of China to dump on the growing
smaller economies.
At the focal point
stands INDIA the "Elephant" slow yet has able to carry the weight of
billion plus people towards a stronger stable nation. The GDP might not be as
big as china but with slowing global economy India with close to 7% growth rate
is the only rising star and alternative seen by rest of the world.
So coming to the
question "Will the Dragon smoke the Elephant?" Let’s look at some
facts?
China's investment in
India is close to $2 billion and its trade deficit in its favor is whopping $47
billion making is one of the biggest importer for china.
China has been flexing muscles
economically and militarily it still can’t afford a war that can surely
jeopardize it vision of world domination.
China understands the
current leadership of India unlike its predecessor can be tough when required
so the direct confrontation might not be the best way forward.
Hence a full blown war
can be ruled out for now the second best thing it plans to do is "Shadow
Boxing" through its proxy Pakistan (which has yielded limited returns) but
continue its trade with us.
With the current
leadership willing to look in the eye of the dragon and simultaneously ramp up
its defense and infrastructure in sensitive areas it might not be an option for
long.
India could well create
its own strategic group with Japan, Israel and Australia with tactical support
of Germany & France to counter weak USA.
Only time will tell what
future really holds but can safely say our foundation of present is in the safe
hands.
Cheers
A
